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Jia Hua vs Lun Lok — Primeira Divisão 2026

Jia Hua
Jia Hua
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lun Lok
Lun Lok
2/21/2025Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 1Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Jia Hua74%
×Draw14%
Lun Lok12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jia Hua
3.23
Lun Lok
1.31

Jia Hua creates 147% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 28 away

creates per match

Jia Hua
2.52
Lun Lok
1.46

allows per match

Jia Hua
1.16
Lun Lok
3.93

finishing

Jia Hua+0.00on par
Lun Lok+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jia Hua ↓

Lun Lok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Jia Hua or draw
88%
Jia Hua or Lun Lok
86%
Draw or Lun Lok
26%

Winning margin

Jia Hua wins by 2+
55%
Lun Lok wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jia Hua 1+ goals
96%
Jia Hua 2+ goals
82%
Jia Hua 3+ goals
61%
Lun Lok 1+ goals
73%
Lun Lok 2+ goals
38%
Lun Lok 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jia Hua (draw refunded)
86%
Lun Lok (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jia Hua at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Lun Lok away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jia Hua attack 2.52 + Lun Lok defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 3.23

Lun Lok attack 1.46 + Jia Hua defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Jia Hua scores more
74%
level
14%
Lun Lok scores more
12%

Jia Hua at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Jia Hua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jia Hua 3 – 0 Lun Lok

Jia Hua beat Lun Lok 3-0 in Primeira Divisão on February 21, 2025.

The match was played at Canidrome in Macau.