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Lun Lok vs Cheng Fung — Primeira Divisão 2026

Lun Lok
Lun Lok
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Cheng Fung
Cheng Fung
4/6/2024Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 6Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Lun Lok10%
×Draw13%
Cheng Fung77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lun Lok
1.19
Cheng Fung
3.31

Cheng Fung creates 178% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 35 away

creates per match

Lun Lok
1.00
Cheng Fung
1.89

allows per match

Lun Lok
4.73
Cheng Fung
1.37

finishing

Lun Lok+0.00on par
Cheng Fung+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lun Lok ↓

Cheng Fung →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Lun Lok or draw
23%
Lun Lok or Cheng Fung
87%
Draw or Cheng Fung
90%

Winning margin

Lun Lok wins by 2+
4%
Cheng Fung wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

Lun Lok 1+ goals
70%
Lun Lok 2+ goals
33%
Lun Lok 3+ goals
12%
Cheng Fung 1+ goals
96%
Cheng Fung 2+ goals
83%
Cheng Fung 3+ goals
62%

Draw no bet

Lun Lok (draw refunded)
12%
Cheng Fung (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lun Lok at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.73 · 22 matches

Cheng Fung away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lun Lok attack 1.00 + Cheng Fung defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Cheng Fung attack 1.89 + Lun Lok defence 4.73 → ÷2 → 3.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Lun Lok scores more
10%
level
13%
Cheng Fung scores more
77%

Cheng Fung at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Cheng Fung will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lun Lok vs Cheng Fung

Cheng Fung beat Lun Lok 3-1 in Primeira Divisão on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Canidrome in Macau.