Cheng Fung 2–2 Lun Lok: Result & Stats

Cheng Fung

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Lun Lok

6/16/2024

Primeira Divisão · Championship Round - 5Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Cheng Fung62%

×Draw17%

Lun Lok21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cheng FungExpected goals in this matchLun Lok

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.06

1.79

Cheng Fung

3.06

Lun Lok

1.79

Cheng Fung creates 71% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 28 away

2.19

creates per match

1.46

2.13

allows per match

3.93

creates per match

Cheng Fung

2.19

Lun Lok

1.46

allows per match

Cheng Fung

2.13

Lun Lok

3.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheng Fung+0.00on par

Lun Lok+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheng Fung ↓

Lun Lok →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Cheng Fung or draw

79%

Cheng Fung or Lun Lok

83%

Draw or Lun Lok

38%

Winning margin

Cheng Fung wins by 2+

43%

Lun Lok wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cheng Fung 1+ goals

95%

Cheng Fung 2+ goals

80%

Cheng Fung 3+ goals

57%

Lun Lok 1+ goals

83%

Lun Lok 2+ goals

53%

Lun Lok 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Cheng Fung (draw refunded)

75%

Lun Lok (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheng Fung at home — creates 2.19, concedes 2.13 · 31 matches

Lun Lok away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheng Fung attack 2.19 + Lun Lok defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 3.06

Lun Lok attack 1.46 + Cheng Fung defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Cheng Fung scores more

62%

level

17%

Lun Lok scores more

21%

Cheng Fung at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Cheng Fung will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff