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Lun Lok vs Benfica — Primeira Divisão 2026

Lun Lok
Lun Lok
FT
1 – 4
Benfica
Benfica
7/8/2023Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 15Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Lun Lok11%
×Draw12%
Benfica77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lun Lok
1.33
Benfica
3.56

Benfica creates 168% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 32 away

creates per match

Lun Lok
1.00
Benfica
2.38

allows per match

Lun Lok
4.73
Benfica
1.66

finishing

Lun Lok+0.00on par
Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lun Lok ↓

Benfica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Lun Lok or draw
23%
Lun Lok or Benfica
88%
Draw or Benfica
89%

Winning margin

Lun Lok wins by 2+
4%
Benfica wins by 2+
59%

Team goals

Lun Lok 1+ goals
74%
Lun Lok 2+ goals
38%
Lun Lok 3+ goals
15%
Benfica 1+ goals
97%
Benfica 2+ goals
86%
Benfica 3+ goals
67%

Draw no bet

Lun Lok (draw refunded)
12%
Benfica (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lun Lok at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.73 · 22 matches

Benfica away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lun Lok attack 1.00 + Benfica defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.33

Benfica attack 2.38 + Lun Lok defence 4.73 → ÷2 → 3.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Lun Lok scores more
11%
level
12%
Benfica scores more
77%

Benfica at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lun Lok vs Benfica

Benfica beat Lun Lok 4-1 in Primeira Divisão on July 8, 2023.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.