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Benfica vs Lun Lok — Primeira Divisão 2026

Benfica
Benfica
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lun Lok
Lun Lok
3/12/2025Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 4Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Benfica78%
×Draw12%
Lun Lok10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica
3.66
Lun Lok
1.35

Benfica creates 171% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 28 away

creates per match

Benfica
3.39
Lun Lok
1.46

allows per match

Benfica
1.24
Lun Lok
3.93

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par
Lun Lok+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Lun Lok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Benfica or draw
90%
Benfica or Lun Lok
88%
Draw or Lun Lok
22%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+
60%
Lun Lok wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals
97%
Benfica 2+ goals
87%
Benfica 3+ goals
68%
Lun Lok 1+ goals
74%
Lun Lok 2+ goals
39%
Lun Lok 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)
88%
Lun Lok (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 3.39, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Lun Lok away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 3.39 + Lun Lok defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 3.66

Lun Lok attack 1.46 + Benfica defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Benfica scores more
78%
level
12%
Lun Lok scores more
10%

Benfica at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Benfica 3–0 Lun Lok

Benfica beat Lun Lok 3-0 in Primeira Divisão on March 12, 2025.

The match was played at Canidrome in Macau.