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Luki-Energiya vs Krasava Odintsovo — Second League - Group 2 2020

Luki-Energiya
Luki-Energiya
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Krasava Odintsovo
Krasava Odintsovo
10/10/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Stadion Ekspress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Luki-Energiya38%
×Draw26%
Krasava Odintsovo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luki-Energiya
1.39
Krasava Odintsovo
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 16 away

creates per match

Luki-Energiya
1.27
Krasava Odintsovo
1.50

allows per match

Luki-Energiya
1.22
Krasava Odintsovo
1.50

finishing

Luki-Energiya+0.00on par
Krasava Odintsovo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luki-Energiya ↓

Krasava Odintsovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Luki-Energiya or draw
63%
Luki-Energiya or Krasava Odintsovo
74%
Draw or Krasava Odintsovo
62%

Winning margin

Luki-Energiya wins by 2+
17%
Krasava Odintsovo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Luki-Energiya 1+ goals
75%
Luki-Energiya 2+ goals
40%
Luki-Energiya 3+ goals
16%
Krasava Odintsovo 1+ goals
74%
Krasava Odintsovo 2+ goals
39%
Krasava Odintsovo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Luki-Energiya (draw refunded)
51%
Krasava Odintsovo (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luki-Energiya at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

Krasava Odintsovo away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luki-Energiya attack 1.27 + Krasava Odintsovo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Krasava Odintsovo attack 1.50 + Luki-Energiya defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Luki-Energiya scores more
38%
level
26%
Krasava Odintsovo scores more
37%

Luki-Energiya at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Luki-Energiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luki-Energiya vs Krasava Odintsovo

Krasava Odintsovo beat Luki-Energiya 4-0 in Second League - Group 2 on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Ekspress in Velikiye Luki.