Krasava Odintsovo 0–2 Luki-Energiya: Result & Stats

Krasava Odintsovo

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Luki-Energiya

8/15/2021

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Krasava Odintsovo58%

×Draw23%

Luki-Energiya19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krasava OdintsovoExpected goals in this matchLuki-Energiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.91

Krasava Odintsovo

1.77

Luki-Energiya

0.91

Krasava Odintsovo creates 95% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 87 away

1.87

creates per match

0.82

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Krasava Odintsovo

1.87

Luki-Energiya

0.82

allows per match

Krasava Odintsovo

1.00

Luki-Energiya

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krasava Odintsovo+0.00on par

Luki-Energiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasava Odintsovo ↓

Luki-Energiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Krasava Odintsovo or draw

81%

Krasava Odintsovo or Luki-Energiya

77%

Draw or Luki-Energiya

42%

Winning margin

Krasava Odintsovo wins by 2+

33%

Luki-Energiya wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Krasava Odintsovo 1+ goals

83%

Krasava Odintsovo 2+ goals

53%

Krasava Odintsovo 3+ goals

26%

Luki-Energiya 1+ goals

60%

Luki-Energiya 2+ goals

23%

Luki-Energiya 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Krasava Odintsovo (draw refunded)

75%

Luki-Energiya (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasava Odintsovo at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Luki-Energiya away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.67 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasava Odintsovo attack 1.87 + Luki-Energiya defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Luki-Energiya attack 0.82 + Krasava Odintsovo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Krasava Odintsovo scores more

58%

level

23%

Luki-Energiya scores more

19%

Krasava Odintsovo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Krasava Odintsovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff