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Lujan vs JJ Urquiza — Primera C 2026

Lujan
Lujan
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
JJ Urquiza
JJ Urquiza
7/13/2024Primera CPrimera C · Clausura - 2Campo Municipal de Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Lujan38%
×Draw31%
JJ Urquiza31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lujan
1.07
JJ Urquiza
0.94

Lujan creates 14% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 68 away

creates per match

Lujan
1.08
JJ Urquiza
1.01

allows per match

Lujan
0.87
JJ Urquiza
1.06

finishing

Lujan+0.00on par
JJ Urquiza+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lujan ↓

JJ Urquiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Lujan or draw
69%
Lujan or JJ Urquiza
69%
Draw or JJ Urquiza
62%

Winning margin

Lujan wins by 2+
15%
JJ Urquiza wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lujan 1+ goals
66%
Lujan 2+ goals
29%
Lujan 3+ goals
9%
JJ Urquiza 1+ goals
61%
JJ Urquiza 2+ goals
24%
JJ Urquiza 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lujan (draw refunded)
55%
JJ Urquiza (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lujan at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.87 · 138 matches

JJ Urquiza away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lujan attack 1.08 + JJ Urquiza defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.07

JJ Urquiza attack 1.01 + Lujan defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lujan scores more
38%
level
31%
JJ Urquiza scores more
31%

Lujan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lujan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Lujan 1–3 JJ Urquiza

JJ Urquiza beat Lujan 3-1 in Primera C on July 13, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Deportes in Luján, Provincia de Buenos Aires.