JJ Urquiza 1–3 Lujan: Result & Stats | Primera C

JJ Urquiza

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Lujan

3/4/2023

Primera C · Round 6Estadio Ramón Roque Martín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

JJ Urquiza39%

×Draw32%

Lujan29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JJ UrquizaExpected goals in this matchLujan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.86

JJ Urquiza

1.04

Lujan

0.86

JJ Urquiza creates 21% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 139 away

1.09

creates per match

1.04

0.69

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

JJ Urquiza

1.09

Lujan

1.04

allows per match

JJ Urquiza

0.69

Lujan

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JJ Urquiza+0.00on par

Lujan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JJ Urquiza ↓

Lujan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

JJ Urquiza or draw

71%

JJ Urquiza or Lujan

68%

Draw or Lujan

61%

Winning margin

JJ Urquiza wins by 2+

15%

Lujan wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

JJ Urquiza 1+ goals

65%

JJ Urquiza 2+ goals

28%

JJ Urquiza 3+ goals

9%

Lujan 1+ goals

58%

Lujan 2+ goals

21%

Lujan 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

JJ Urquiza (draw refunded)

57%

Lujan (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JJ Urquiza at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.69 · 65 matches

Lujan away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.99 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JJ Urquiza attack 1.09 + Lujan defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.04

Lujan attack 1.04 + JJ Urquiza defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

JJ Urquiza scores more

39%

level

32%

Lujan scores more

29%

JJ Urquiza at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "JJ Urquiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff