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Lujan vs Argentino Quilmes — Primera C 2026

Lujan
Lujanadvanced
FT
1 – 0
Argentino Quilmes
Argentino Quilmes
5/26/2018Primera CPrimera C · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsCampo Municipal de Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Lujan36%
×Draw31%
Argentino Quilmes33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lujan
1.03
Argentino Quilmes
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 142 home / 24 away

creates per match

Lujan
1.06
Argentino Quilmes
1.08

allows per match

Lujan
0.86
Argentino Quilmes
1.00

finishing

Lujan+0.00on par
Argentino Quilmes+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lujan ↓

Argentino Quilmes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Lujan or draw
67%
Lujan or Argentino Quilmes
69%
Draw or Argentino Quilmes
64%

Winning margin

Lujan wins by 2+
14%
Argentino Quilmes wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lujan 1+ goals
64%
Lujan 2+ goals
28%
Lujan 3+ goals
9%
Argentino Quilmes 1+ goals
62%
Argentino Quilmes 2+ goals
25%
Argentino Quilmes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lujan (draw refunded)
52%
Argentino Quilmes (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lujan at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.86 · 142 matches

Argentino Quilmes away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lujan attack 1.06 + Argentino Quilmes defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Argentino Quilmes attack 1.08 + Lujan defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Lujan scores more
36%
level
31%
Argentino Quilmes scores more
33%

Lujan at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Lujan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Lujan 1–0 Argentino Quilmes

Lujan beat Argentino Quilmes 1-0 in Primera C on May 26, 2018.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Deportes in Luján, Provincia de Buenos Aires.