Argentino Quilmes 1–1 Lujan: Result & Stats

Argentino Quilmes

FT

1 – 1

Lujan

2/22/2018

Primera C · Round 23Estadio La Barraca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Argentino Quilmes45%

×Draw30%

Lujan26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Argentino QuilmesExpected goals in this matchLujan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.84

Argentino Quilmes

1.21

Lujan

0.84

Argentino Quilmes creates 44% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 143 away

1.43

creates per match

1.04

0.65

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Argentino Quilmes

1.43

Lujan

1.04

allows per match

Argentino Quilmes

0.65

Lujan

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Argentino Quilmes+0.00on par

Lujan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentino Quilmes ↓

Lujan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Argentino Quilmes or draw

74%

Argentino Quilmes or Lujan

70%

Draw or Lujan

55%

Winning margin

Argentino Quilmes wins by 2+

20%

Lujan wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Argentino Quilmes 1+ goals

70%

Argentino Quilmes 2+ goals

34%

Argentino Quilmes 3+ goals

12%

Lujan 1+ goals

57%

Lujan 2+ goals

21%

Lujan 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Argentino Quilmes (draw refunded)

64%

Lujan (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentino Quilmes at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.65 · 23 matches

Lujan away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.99 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentino Quilmes attack 1.43 + Lujan defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lujan attack 1.04 + Argentino Quilmes defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Argentino Quilmes scores more

45%

level

30%

Lujan scores more

26%

Argentino Quilmes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Argentino Quilmes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff