Lugo 2–2 Elche: Result & Stats | Segunda División

Lugo

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Elche

José Carrillo 61'

Y. Rahmani 13'

Nino 88', 86'

2/9/2020

Segunda División · Round 27Estadio Anxo Carro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Lugo38%

×Draw29%

Elche33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LugoExpected goals in this matchElche

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.06

Lugo

1.16

Elche

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 86 away

1.04

creates per match

1.07

1.06

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Lugo

1.04

Elche

1.07

allows per match

Lugo

1.06

Elche

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lugo+0.00on par

Elche+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugo ↓

Elche →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Lugo or draw

67%

Lugo or Elche

71%

Draw or Elche

62%

Winning margin

Lugo wins by 2+

16%

Elche wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lugo 1+ goals

69%

Lugo 2+ goals

32%

Lugo 3+ goals

11%

Elche 1+ goals

65%

Elche 2+ goals

29%

Elche 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Lugo (draw refunded)

54%

Elche (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugo at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

Elche away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugo attack 1.04 + Elche defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.16

Elche attack 1.07 + Lugo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lugo scores more

38%

level

29%

Elche scores more

33%

Lugo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lugo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Nino

Elche · F

8.8

Match Events

13'

27'

45'

46'

59'

60'

61'

José Carrillo↳ Y. Rahmani

66'

Mathieu Peybernes

67'

Jonathas← Josán Fernández

67'

Dani Escriche← O. Mfulu

70'

Gonzalo Verdú

70'

Fernando Seoane← Jaime Seoane

75'

79'

80'

86'

88'

Nino↳ Juan Cruz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LugoElche

Overview

37%Possession63%

10Total Shots15

1Corners5

24Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots15

3On Target3

5Off Target9

2Blocked3

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box7

Passing

37%Possession63%

290Total Passes476

212Accurate Passes395

73%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

24Fouls13

4Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2

Segunda División: Lugo 2–2 Elche

Lugo and Elche drew 2-2 in Segunda División on February 9, 2020.

Goals: Y. Rahmani (13'), José Carrillo (61'), Nino (86', 88').

Elche controlled possession (63%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Anxo Carro in Lugo.

Lugo vs Elche — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Lugo 2–2 Elche