Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Elche vs Lugo — Segunda División 2018

Elche
Elche
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lugo
Lugo
Nino 31'
Borja Domínguez 68'
9/8/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 4Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Elche51%
×Draw28%
Lugo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche
1.38
Lugo
0.79

Elche creates 75% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 107 away

creates per match

Elche
1.31
Lugo
0.82

allows per match

Elche
0.76
Lugo
1.45

finishing

Elche+0.00on par
Lugo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Lugo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Elche or draw
79%
Elche or Lugo
72%
Draw or Lugo
49%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+
25%
Lugo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals
75%
Elche 2+ goals
40%
Elche 3+ goals
16%
Lugo 1+ goals
55%
Lugo 2+ goals
19%
Lugo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)
70%
Lugo (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Lugo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.45 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Lugo defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Lugo attack 0.82 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Elche scores more
51%
level
28%
Lugo scores more
21%

Elche at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
NinoElcheElche · F
7.9

Match Events

6'
Gonzalo Verdú
6'
Fernando Seoane
31'
Nino↳ Juan Cruz
40'
Gonzalo Villar
54'
Borja Dominguez
60'
Yacine Qasmi
61'
Y. Rahmani← Edu Campabadal
68'
Borja Domínguez
73'
Josán Fernández← Iván Sánchez
78'
Claudio Medina← Y. Qasmi
78'
Carlos Castro← Manu Barreiro
80'
Jaume Grau← Álex López
85'
Pere Milla← Nino
90'
Gerard Valentín

Possession

53%Elche

Shots

13Elche

Pass accuracy

52%Elche

Statistics

ElcheLugo
Overview
53%Possession47%
13Total Shots5
1Corners3
18Fouls23
Shots
13Total Shots5
4On Target4
7Off Target0
2Blocked1
7Inside Box1
6Outside Box4
Passing
53%Possession47%
414Total Passes375
344Accurate Passes294
83%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls23
3Yellow Cards3
5Offsides2

Elche 1 – 1 Lugo

Elche and Lugo drew 1-1 in Segunda División on September 8, 2019.

Goals: Nino (31'), Borja Domínguez (68').

Elche controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.