Lugo 0–0 Deportivo La Coruna: Result & Stats

Lugo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo La Coruna

12/1/2019

Segunda División · Round 18Estadio Anxo Carro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Lugo35%

×Draw29%

Deportivo La Coruna36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LugoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo La Coruna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.12

Lugo

1.10

Deportivo La Coruna

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 85 away

1.05

creates per match

1.15

1.09

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Lugo

1.05

Deportivo La Coruna

1.15

allows per match

Lugo

1.09

Deportivo La Coruna

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lugo+0.00on par

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugo ↓

Deportivo La Coruna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Lugo or draw

64%

Lugo or Deportivo La Coruna

71%

Draw or Deportivo La Coruna

65%

Winning margin

Lugo wins by 2+

14%

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lugo 1+ goals

67%

Lugo 2+ goals

30%

Lugo 3+ goals

10%

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals

67%

Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals

31%

Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lugo (draw refunded)

49%

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugo at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

Deportivo La Coruna away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugo attack 1.05 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.15 + Lugo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Lugo scores more

35%

level

29%

Deportivo La Coruna scores more

36%

Deportivo La Coruna at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff