Deportivo La Coruna vs Lugo — Segunda División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 85+ matches
Deportivo La Coruna48%
Lugo25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Deportivo La Coruna creates 48% more chances
Season form · 85 home / 105 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Deportivo La Coruna ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Deportivo La Coruna at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 85 matches
Lugo away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.46 · 105 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.42 + Lugo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44
Lugo attack 0.83 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.97
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Deportivo La Coruna at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Osasuna
Granada CF
Malaga
Albacete
MallorcaDeportivo La Coruna
Cadiz
Oviedo
Sporting Gijon
Almeria
Elche
Las Palmas
Extremadura
Alcorcon
Zaragoza
Tenerife
NumanciaLugo
Rayo Majadahonda
Gimnastic
Cordoba
ReusIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Deportivo La Coruna host Lugo on Sunday, 1 March 2020 at 15:00. The match is part of the Segunda División 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Deportivo La Coruna vs Lugo
Deportivo La Coruna and Lugo drew 0-0 in Segunda División on March 1, 2020.
The match was played at Estadio Abanca-Riazor in La Coruña.