Lugano II 2–2 Breitenrain: Result & Stats

Lugano II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Breitenrain

2/22/2025

1. Liga Promotion · Round 20Centro Sportivo Al Maglio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Lugano II40%

×Draw24%

Breitenrain36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lugano IIExpected goals in this matchBreitenrain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.54

Lugano II

1.62

Breitenrain

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 101 away

1.37

creates per match

1.50

1.57

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Lugano II

1.37

Breitenrain

1.50

allows per match

Lugano II

1.57

Breitenrain

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lugano II+0.00on par

Breitenrain+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugano II ↓

Breitenrain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Lugano II or draw

64%

Lugano II or Breitenrain

76%

Draw or Breitenrain

60%

Winning margin

Lugano II wins by 2+

20%

Breitenrain wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Lugano II 1+ goals

80%

Lugano II 2+ goals

48%

Lugano II 3+ goals

22%

Breitenrain 1+ goals

79%

Breitenrain 2+ goals

45%

Breitenrain 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Lugano II (draw refunded)

52%

Breitenrain (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugano II at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

Breitenrain away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.87 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugano II attack 1.37 + Breitenrain defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.62

Breitenrain attack 1.50 + Lugano II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lugano II scores more

40%

level

24%

Breitenrain scores more

36%

Lugano II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lugano II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff