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Breitenrain vs Lugano II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Breitenrain
Breitenrain
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lugano II
Lugano II
8/17/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 3Sportplatz Spitalacker

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Breitenrain52%
×Draw22%
Lugano II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Breitenrain
2.04
Lugano II
1.40

Breitenrain creates 46% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 51 away

creates per match

Breitenrain
1.90
Lugano II
1.39

allows per match

Breitenrain
1.40
Lugano II
2.18

finishing

Breitenrain+0.00on par
Lugano II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breitenrain ↓

Lugano II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Breitenrain or draw
74%
Breitenrain or Lugano II
78%
Draw or Lugano II
48%

Winning margin

Breitenrain wins by 2+
30%
Lugano II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Breitenrain 1+ goals
87%
Breitenrain 2+ goals
60%
Breitenrain 3+ goals
33%
Lugano II 1+ goals
75%
Lugano II 2+ goals
41%
Lugano II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Breitenrain (draw refunded)
66%
Lugano II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breitenrain at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.40 · 107 matches

Lugano II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breitenrain attack 1.90 + Lugano II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.04

Lugano II attack 1.39 + Breitenrain defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Breitenrain scores more
52%
level
22%
Lugano II scores more
26%

Breitenrain at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Breitenrain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Breitenrain vs Lugano II

Breitenrain beat Lugano II 1-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Spitalacker in Bern.