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Lugano II vs Basel II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Lugano II
Lugano II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Basel II
Basel II
4/11/20261. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 26Centro Sportivo Al Maglio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Lugano II37%
×Draw23%
Basel II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lugano II
1.56
Basel II
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 106 away

creates per match

Lugano II
1.37
Basel II
1.70

allows per match

Lugano II
1.57
Basel II
1.75

finishing

Lugano II+0.00on par
Basel II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugano II ↓

Basel II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lugano II or draw
60%
Lugano II or Basel II
77%
Draw or Basel II
63%

Winning margin

Lugano II wins by 2+
18%
Basel II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Lugano II 1+ goals
79%
Lugano II 2+ goals
46%
Lugano II 3+ goals
21%
Basel II 1+ goals
81%
Basel II 2+ goals
49%
Basel II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Lugano II (draw refunded)
48%
Basel II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugano II at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

Basel II away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.75 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugano II attack 1.37 + Basel II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.56

Basel II attack 1.70 + Lugano II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lugano II scores more
37%
level
23%
Basel II scores more
40%

Basel II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Basel II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Lugano II 4–2 Basel II

Lugano II beat Basel II 4-2 in 1. Liga Promotion on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Al Maglio in Canobbio.