Basel II 3–2 Lugano II: Result & Stats

Basel II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Lugano II

9/28/2025

1. Liga Promotion · Round 9Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Basel II49%

×Draw21%

Lugano II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Basel IIExpected goals in this matchLugano II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.56

Basel II

2.04

Lugano II

1.56

Basel II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 51 away

1.90

creates per match

1.39

1.74

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Basel II

1.90

Lugano II

1.39

allows per match

Basel II

1.74

Lugano II

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Basel II+0.00on par

Lugano II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basel II ↓

Lugano II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Basel II or draw

70%

Basel II or Lugano II

79%

Draw or Lugano II

51%

Winning margin

Basel II wins by 2+

28%

Lugano II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Basel II 1+ goals

87%

Basel II 2+ goals

60%

Basel II 3+ goals

33%

Lugano II 1+ goals

79%

Lugano II 2+ goals

46%

Lugano II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Basel II (draw refunded)

62%

Lugano II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Basel II at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

Lugano II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Basel II attack 1.90 + Lugano II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.04

Lugano II attack 1.39 + Basel II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Basel II scores more

49%

level

21%

Lugano II scores more

30%

Basel II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Basel II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff