Luftetari Gjirokaster 1–5 Kastrioti Krujë

Luftetari Gjirokaster

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Kastrioti Krujë

1/27/2019

Superliga · Round 19Stadiumi Gjirokastra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Luftetari Gjirokaster41%

×Draw29%

Kastrioti Krujë30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Luftetari GjirokasterExpected goals in this matchKastrioti Krujë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.01

Luftetari Gjirokaster

1.22

Kastrioti Krujë

1.01

Luftetari Gjirokaster creates 21% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 73 away

0.81

creates per match

0.60

1.42

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Luftetari Gjirokaster

0.81

Kastrioti Krujë

0.60

allows per match

Luftetari Gjirokaster

1.42

Kastrioti Krujë

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luftetari Gjirokaster+0.00on par

Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luftetari Gjirokaster ↓

Kastrioti Krujë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Luftetari Gjirokaster or draw

70%

Luftetari Gjirokaster or Kastrioti Krujë

71%

Draw or Kastrioti Krujë

59%

Winning margin

Luftetari Gjirokaster wins by 2+

18%

Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Luftetari Gjirokaster 1+ goals

70%

Luftetari Gjirokaster 2+ goals

34%

Luftetari Gjirokaster 3+ goals

12%

Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals

64%

Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals

27%

Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Luftetari Gjirokaster (draw refunded)

57%

Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luftetari Gjirokaster at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

Kastrioti Krujë away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.63 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luftetari Gjirokaster attack 0.81 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.22

Kastrioti Krujë attack 0.60 + Luftetari Gjirokaster defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Luftetari Gjirokaster scores more

41%

level

29%

Kastrioti Krujë scores more

30%

Luftetari Gjirokaster at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Luftetari Gjirokaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff