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Kastrioti Krujë vs Luftetari Gjirokaster — Superliga 2018

Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Luftetari Gjirokaster
Luftetari Gjirokaster
10/28/2018SuperligaSuperliga · Round 10Stadiumi Kastrioti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Kastrioti Krujë51%
×Draw26%
Luftetari Gjirokaster23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kastrioti Krujë
1.54
Luftetari Gjirokaster
0.95

Kastrioti Krujë creates 62% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 36 away

creates per match

Kastrioti Krujë
1.03
Luftetari Gjirokaster
0.75

allows per match

Kastrioti Krujë
1.16
Luftetari Gjirokaster
2.06

finishing

Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par
Luftetari Gjirokaster+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kastrioti Krujë ↓

Luftetari Gjirokaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kastrioti Krujë or draw
77%
Kastrioti Krujë or Luftetari Gjirokaster
74%
Draw or Luftetari Gjirokaster
49%

Winning margin

Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+
26%
Luftetari Gjirokaster wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals
79%
Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals
45%
Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals
20%
Luftetari Gjirokaster 1+ goals
61%
Luftetari Gjirokaster 2+ goals
25%
Luftetari Gjirokaster 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)
69%
Luftetari Gjirokaster (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kastrioti Krujë at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.16 · 73 matches

Luftetari Gjirokaster away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kastrioti Krujë attack 1.03 + Luftetari Gjirokaster defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.54

Luftetari Gjirokaster attack 0.75 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kastrioti Krujë scores more
51%
level
26%
Luftetari Gjirokaster scores more
23%

Kastrioti Krujë at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kastrioti Krujë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kastrioti Krujë vs Luftetari Gjirokaster

Luftetari Gjirokaster beat Kastrioti Krujë 2-0 in Superliga on October 28, 2018.

The match was played at Stadiumi Kastrioti in Krujë.