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Ludwigsfelde vs International Leipzig — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
CANC
12:00
International Leipzig
International Leipzig
12/12/2020Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 15Waldstadion Ludwigsfelde Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Ludwigsfelde46%
×Draw23%
International Leipzig31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludwigsfelde
1.82
International Leipzig
1.45

Ludwigsfelde creates 26% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 22 away

creates per match

Ludwigsfelde
1.10
International Leipzig
1.36

allows per match

Ludwigsfelde
1.54
International Leipzig
2.55

finishing

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par
International Leipzig+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludwigsfelde ↓

International Leipzig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ludwigsfelde or draw
69%
Ludwigsfelde or International Leipzig
77%
Draw or International Leipzig
54%

Winning margin

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
25%
International Leipzig wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
84%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
54%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
27%
International Leipzig 1+ goals
77%
International Leipzig 2+ goals
42%
International Leipzig 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
60%
International Leipzig (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludwigsfelde at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 52 matches

International Leipzig away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludwigsfelde attack 1.10 + International Leipzig defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.82

International Leipzig attack 1.36 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ludwigsfelde scores more
46%
level
23%
International Leipzig scores more
31%

Ludwigsfelde at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ludwigsfelde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ludwigsfelde face International Leipzig (Oberliga - Nordost-Süd)

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd returns with Ludwigsfelde hosting International Leipzig. Match starts December 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ludwigsfelde host International Leipzig at Waldstadion Ludwigsfelde Kunstrasenplatz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.