International Leipzig vs Ludwigsfelde

International Leipzig

CANC

12:00

Ludwigsfelde

5/30/2021

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 32Hafenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

International Leipzig43%

×Draw23%

Ludwigsfelde34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

International LeipzigExpected goals in this matchLudwigsfelde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.48

International Leipzig

1.70

Ludwigsfelde

1.48

International Leipzig creates 15% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 50 away

1.44

creates per match

0.96

2.00

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

International Leipzig

1.44

Ludwigsfelde

0.96

allows per match

International Leipzig

2.00

Ludwigsfelde

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

International Leipzig+0.00on par

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

International Leipzig ↓

Ludwigsfelde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

International Leipzig or draw

66%

International Leipzig or Ludwigsfelde

77%

Draw or Ludwigsfelde

57%

Winning margin

International Leipzig wins by 2+

22%

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

International Leipzig 1+ goals

82%

International Leipzig 2+ goals

51%

International Leipzig 3+ goals

24%

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals

77%

Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals

43%

Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

International Leipzig (draw refunded)

56%

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

International Leipzig at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Ludwigsfelde away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.96 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

International Leipzig attack 1.44 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.70

Ludwigsfelde attack 0.96 + International Leipzig defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

International Leipzig scores more

43%

level

23%

Ludwigsfelde scores more

34%

International Leipzig at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "International Leipzig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff