Ludwigsfelde 1–1 Germania Halberstadt

Ludwigsfelde

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Germania Halberstadt

10/1/2023

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 8Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ludwigsfelde34%

×Draw25%

Germania Halberstadt41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LudwigsfeldeExpected goals in this matchGermania Halberstadt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.49

Ludwigsfelde

1.35

Germania Halberstadt

1.49

Germania Halberstadt creates 10% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 45 away

1.10

creates per match

1.44

1.54

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Ludwigsfelde

1.10

Germania Halberstadt

1.44

allows per match

Ludwigsfelde

1.54

Germania Halberstadt

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Germania Halberstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludwigsfelde ↓

Germania Halberstadt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ludwigsfelde or draw

59%

Ludwigsfelde or Germania Halberstadt

75%

Draw or Germania Halberstadt

66%

Winning margin

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+

15%

Germania Halberstadt wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals

74%

Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals

39%

Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals

15%

Germania Halberstadt 1+ goals

77%

Germania Halberstadt 2+ goals

44%

Germania Halberstadt 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)

46%

Germania Halberstadt (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludwigsfelde at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 52 matches

Germania Halberstadt away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludwigsfelde attack 1.10 + Germania Halberstadt defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

Germania Halberstadt attack 1.44 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ludwigsfelde scores more

34%

level

25%

Germania Halberstadt scores more

41%

Germania Halberstadt at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Germania Halberstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff