Germania Halberstadt 2–0 Ludwigsfelde

Germania Halberstadt

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ludwigsfelde

4/14/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 23Friedensstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Germania Halberstadt60%

×Draw20%

Ludwigsfelde21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germania HalberstadtExpected goals in this matchLudwigsfelde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.28

Germania Halberstadt

2.28

Ludwigsfelde

1.28

Germania Halberstadt creates 78% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 50 away

2.60

creates per match

0.96

1.60

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Germania Halberstadt

2.60

Ludwigsfelde

0.96

allows per match

Germania Halberstadt

1.60

Ludwigsfelde

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germania Halberstadt+0.00on par

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Halberstadt ↓

Ludwigsfelde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Germania Halberstadt or draw

79%

Germania Halberstadt or Ludwigsfelde

80%

Draw or Ludwigsfelde

40%

Winning margin

Germania Halberstadt wins by 2+

37%

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Germania Halberstadt 1+ goals

90%

Germania Halberstadt 2+ goals

66%

Germania Halberstadt 3+ goals

39%

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals

72%

Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals

37%

Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Germania Halberstadt (draw refunded)

74%

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Halberstadt at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

Ludwigsfelde away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.96 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Halberstadt attack 2.60 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.28

Ludwigsfelde attack 0.96 + Germania Halberstadt defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Germania Halberstadt scores more

60%

level

20%

Ludwigsfelde scores more

21%

Germania Halberstadt at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Germania Halberstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff