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Ludwigsfelde vs CFC Hertha — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
FT
0 – 1
CFC Hertha
CFC Hertha
10/2/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 9Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ludwigsfelde38%
×Draw26%
CFC Hertha37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludwigsfelde
1.37
CFC Hertha
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 44 away

creates per match

Ludwigsfelde
1.13
CFC Hertha
1.30

allows per match

Ludwigsfelde
1.40
CFC Hertha
1.61

finishing

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par
CFC Hertha+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludwigsfelde ↓

CFC Hertha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ludwigsfelde or draw
63%
Ludwigsfelde or CFC Hertha
74%
Draw or CFC Hertha
62%

Winning margin

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
17%
CFC Hertha wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
75%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
40%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
16%
CFC Hertha 1+ goals
74%
CFC Hertha 2+ goals
39%
CFC Hertha 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
51%
CFC Hertha (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludwigsfelde at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

CFC Hertha away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludwigsfelde attack 1.13 + CFC Hertha defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.37

CFC Hertha attack 1.30 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ludwigsfelde scores more
38%
level
26%
CFC Hertha scores more
37%

Ludwigsfelde at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ludwigsfelde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Ludwigsfelde 0–1 CFC Hertha

CFC Hertha beat Ludwigsfelde 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Waldstadion in Ludwigsfelde.