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CFC Hertha vs Ludwigsfelde — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

CFC Hertha
CFC Hertha
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
5/15/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 28Sportplatz Sömmeringstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CFC Hertha53%
×Draw24%
Ludwigsfelde23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFC Hertha
1.75
Ludwigsfelde
1.06

CFC Hertha creates 65% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

creates per match

CFC Hertha
1.91
Ludwigsfelde
0.80

allows per match

CFC Hertha
1.33
Ludwigsfelde
1.60

finishing

CFC Hertha+0.00on par
Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFC Hertha ↓

Ludwigsfelde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CFC Hertha or draw
77%
CFC Hertha or Ludwigsfelde
76%
Draw or Ludwigsfelde
47%

Winning margin

CFC Hertha wins by 2+
30%
Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CFC Hertha 1+ goals
83%
CFC Hertha 2+ goals
52%
CFC Hertha 3+ goals
25%
Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
65%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
29%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CFC Hertha (draw refunded)
70%
Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFC Hertha at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

Ludwigsfelde away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFC Hertha attack 1.91 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.75

Ludwigsfelde attack 0.80 + CFC Hertha defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

CFC Hertha scores more
53%
level
24%
Ludwigsfelde scores more
23%

CFC Hertha at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "CFC Hertha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: CFC Hertha 2–0 Ludwigsfelde

CFC Hertha beat Ludwigsfelde 2-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Sömmeringstraße in Berlin.