Ludwigsfelde 2–3 Budissa Bautzen: Result & Stats

Ludwigsfelde

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Budissa Bautzen

6/2/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 29Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Ludwigsfelde37%

×Draw23%

Budissa Bautzen39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LudwigsfeldeExpected goals in this matchBudissa Bautzen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.66

Ludwigsfelde

1.61

Budissa Bautzen

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 77 away

1.10

creates per match

1.78

1.54

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Ludwigsfelde

1.10

Budissa Bautzen

1.78

allows per match

Ludwigsfelde

1.54

Budissa Bautzen

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Budissa Bautzen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludwigsfelde ↓

Budissa Bautzen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Ludwigsfelde or draw

61%

Ludwigsfelde or Budissa Bautzen

77%

Draw or Budissa Bautzen

63%

Winning margin

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+

18%

Budissa Bautzen wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals

80%

Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals

48%

Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals

22%

Budissa Bautzen 1+ goals

81%

Budissa Bautzen 2+ goals

49%

Budissa Bautzen 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)

49%

Budissa Bautzen (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludwigsfelde at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 52 matches

Budissa Bautzen away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.12 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludwigsfelde attack 1.10 + Budissa Bautzen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.61

Budissa Bautzen attack 1.78 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ludwigsfelde scores more

37%

level

23%

Budissa Bautzen scores more

39%

Budissa Bautzen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Budissa Bautzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff