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Budissa Bautzen vs Ludwigsfelde — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Budissa Bautzen
Budissa Bautzen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
1/29/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 18Stadion Müllerwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Budissa Bautzen57%
×Draw21%
Ludwigsfelde22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budissa Bautzen
2.03
Ludwigsfelde
1.17

Budissa Bautzen creates 74% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 50 away

creates per match

Budissa Bautzen
2.10
Ludwigsfelde
0.96

allows per match

Budissa Bautzen
1.39
Ludwigsfelde
1.96

finishing

Budissa Bautzen+0.00on par
Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budissa Bautzen ↓

Ludwigsfelde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Budissa Bautzen or draw
78%
Budissa Bautzen or Ludwigsfelde
79%
Draw or Ludwigsfelde
43%

Winning margin

Budissa Bautzen wins by 2+
34%
Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Budissa Bautzen 1+ goals
87%
Budissa Bautzen 2+ goals
60%
Budissa Bautzen 3+ goals
33%
Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
69%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
33%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Budissa Bautzen (draw refunded)
73%
Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budissa Bautzen at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.39 · 77 matches

Ludwigsfelde away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.96 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budissa Bautzen attack 2.10 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.03

Ludwigsfelde attack 0.96 + Budissa Bautzen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Budissa Bautzen scores more
57%
level
21%
Ludwigsfelde scores more
22%

Budissa Bautzen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Budissa Bautzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Budissa Bautzen vs Ludwigsfelde

Budissa Bautzen beat Ludwigsfelde 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Müllerwiese in Bautzen.