Ludogorets 1–0 FC Nordsjaelland: Result & Stats

Ludogorets

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Nordsjaelland

12/14/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 6Huvepharma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ludogorets54%

×Draw31%

FC Nordsjaelland15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LudogoretsExpected goals in this matchFC Nordsjaelland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.50

Ludogorets

1.20

FC Nordsjaelland

0.50

Ludogorets creates 140% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.60

creates per match

0.80

0.20

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Ludogorets

1.60

FC Nordsjaelland

0.80

allows per match

Ludogorets

0.20

FC Nordsjaelland

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludogorets+0.00on par

FC Nordsjaelland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No73
Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets ↓

FC Nordsjaelland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–19%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–111%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Ludogorets or draw

85%

Ludogorets or FC Nordsjaelland

69%

Draw or FC Nordsjaelland

46%

Winning margin

Ludogorets wins by 2+

24%

FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Ludogorets 1+ goals

70%

Ludogorets 2+ goals

34%

Ludogorets 3+ goals

12%

FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals

39%

FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals

9%

FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets (draw refunded)

78%

FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

FC Nordsjaelland away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets attack 1.60 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.20

FC Nordsjaelland attack 0.80 + Ludogorets defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ludogorets scores more

54%

level

31%

FC Nordsjaelland scores more

15%

Ludogorets at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff