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FC Nordsjaelland vs Ludogorets — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

FC Nordsjaelland
FC Nordsjaelland
FT
7 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Ludogorets
Ludogorets
10/5/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 2Right to Dream Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC Nordsjaelland85%
×Draw10%
Ludogorets5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Nordsjaelland
3.48
Ludogorets
0.80

FC Nordsjaelland creates 335% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

FC Nordsjaelland
4.20
Ludogorets
1.00

allows per match

FC Nordsjaelland
0.60
Ludogorets
2.75

finishing

FC Nordsjaelland+0.00on par
Ludogorets+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nordsjaelland ↓

Ludogorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

FC Nordsjaelland or draw
95%
FC Nordsjaelland or Ludogorets
90%
Draw or Ludogorets
15%

Winning margin

FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+
69%
Ludogorets wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals
97%
FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals
85%
FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals
65%
Ludogorets 1+ goals
55%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
19%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)
94%
Ludogorets (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nordsjaelland at home — creates 4.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nordsjaelland attack 4.20 + Ludogorets defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.48

Ludogorets attack 1.00 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

FC Nordsjaelland scores more
85%
level
10%
Ludogorets scores more
5%

FC Nordsjaelland at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "FC Nordsjaelland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Nordsjaelland vs Ludogorets

FC Nordsjaelland beat Ludogorets 7-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 5, 2023.

The match was played at Right to Dream Park in Farum.