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Ludogorets vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo — First League 2026

Ludogorets
Ludogorets
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
7/22/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Huvepharma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Ludogorets69%
×Draw19%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets
2.05
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0.69

Ludogorets creates 197% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 69 away

creates per match

Ludogorets
2.38
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0.81

allows per match

Ludogorets
0.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.72

finishing

Ludogorets+0.00on par
Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets ↓

Etar Veliko Tarnovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ludogorets or draw
89%
Ludogorets or Etar Veliko Tarnovo
81%
Draw or Etar Veliko Tarnovo
31%

Winning margin

Ludogorets wins by 2+
44%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ludogorets 1+ goals
87%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
61%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
33%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals
50%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals
15%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets (draw refunded)
86%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.57 · 138 matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets attack 2.38 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.05

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 0.81 + Ludogorets defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Ludogorets scores more
69%
level
19%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more
11%

Ludogorets at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ludogorets vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Ludogorets beat Etar Veliko Tarnovo 5-0 in First League on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Huvepharma Arena in Razgrad.