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Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Ludogorets — First League 2026

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 4
Ludogorets
Ludogorets
11/12/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Stadion Ivailo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo23%
×Draw25%
Ludogorets51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0.96
Ludogorets
1.56

Ludogorets creates 63% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 133 away

creates per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.08
Ludogorets
1.83

allows per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.29
Ludogorets
0.83

finishing

Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par
Ludogorets+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etar Veliko Tarnovo ↓

Ludogorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or draw
49%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo or Ludogorets
75%
Draw or Ludogorets
77%

Winning margin

Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+
8%
Ludogorets wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals
62%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals
25%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals
7%
Ludogorets 1+ goals
79%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
46%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)
31%
Ludogorets (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 66 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.08 + Ludogorets defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.96

Ludogorets attack 1.83 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more
23%
level
25%
Ludogorets scores more
51%

Ludogorets at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Etar Veliko Tarnovo 0–4 Ludogorets

Ludogorets beat Etar Veliko Tarnovo 4-0 in First League on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Ivailo in Veliko Târnovo.