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Ludogorets vs Botev Vratsa — First League 2026

Ludogorets
Ludogorets
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
3/15/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Huvepharma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Ludogorets69%
×Draw19%
Botev Vratsa12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets
2.13
Botev Vratsa
0.75

Ludogorets creates 184% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 136 away

creates per match

Ludogorets
2.38
Botev Vratsa
0.93

allows per match

Ludogorets
0.57
Botev Vratsa
1.89

finishing

Ludogorets+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets ↓

Botev Vratsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ludogorets or draw
88%
Ludogorets or Botev Vratsa
81%
Draw or Botev Vratsa
31%

Winning margin

Ludogorets wins by 2+
44%
Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ludogorets 1+ goals
88%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
63%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
35%
Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
53%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
17%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets (draw refunded)
85%
Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.57 · 137 matches

Botev Vratsa away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.89 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets attack 2.38 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.13

Botev Vratsa attack 0.93 + Ludogorets defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Ludogorets scores more
69%
level
19%
Botev Vratsa scores more
12%

Ludogorets at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Ludogorets 3–0 Botev Vratsa

Ludogorets beat Botev Vratsa 3-0 in First League on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Huvepharma Arena in Razgrad.