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Botev Vratsa vs Ludogorets — First League 2026

Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ludogorets
Ludogorets
7/25/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Hristo Botev Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Botev Vratsa24%
×Draw26%
Ludogorets50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa
0.94
Ludogorets
1.48

Ludogorets creates 57% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 133 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa
1.04
Ludogorets
1.83

allows per match

Botev Vratsa
1.12
Ludogorets
0.83

finishing

Botev Vratsa+0.00on par
Ludogorets+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa ↓

Ludogorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa or draw
50%
Botev Vratsa or Ludogorets
74%
Draw or Ludogorets
76%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
8%
Ludogorets wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
61%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
24%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
7%
Ludogorets 1+ goals
77%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
43%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
33%
Ludogorets (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.12 · 139 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa attack 1.04 + Ludogorets defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.94

Ludogorets attack 1.83 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Botev Vratsa scores more
24%
level
26%
Ludogorets scores more
50%

Ludogorets at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Vratsa vs Ludogorets

Ludogorets beat Botev Vratsa 1-0 in First League on July 25, 2025.

The match was played at Hristo Botev Stadium in Vraca.