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Ludogorets vs Anderlecht — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Ludogorets
Ludogorets
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Anderlecht
Anderlecht
2/16/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Knockout Round Play-offsHuvepharma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ludogorets48%
×Draw31%
Anderlecht21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets
1.17
Anderlecht
0.65

Ludogorets creates 80% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Ludogorets
1.60
Anderlecht
1.09

allows per match

Ludogorets
0.20
Anderlecht
0.73

finishing

Ludogorets+0.00on par
Anderlecht+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets ↓

Anderlecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Ludogorets or draw
79%
Ludogorets or Anderlecht
69%
Draw or Anderlecht
52%

Winning margin

Ludogorets wins by 2+
21%
Anderlecht wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ludogorets 1+ goals
69%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
33%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
11%
Anderlecht 1+ goals
48%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
14%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets (draw refunded)
70%
Anderlecht (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets attack 1.60 + Anderlecht defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.17

Anderlecht attack 1.09 + Ludogorets defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ludogorets scores more
48%
level
31%
Anderlecht scores more
21%

Ludogorets at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ludogorets vs Anderlecht

Ludogorets beat Anderlecht 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on February 16, 2023.

The match was played at Huvepharma Arena in Razgrad.