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Anderlecht vs Ludogorets — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Anderlecht
Anderlecht
Pens
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ludogorets
Ludogorets
2/23/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Knockout Round Play-offsLotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Anderlecht67%
×Draw19%
Ludogorets14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anderlecht
2.27
Ludogorets
0.95

Anderlecht creates 139% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

creates per match

Anderlecht
1.80
Ludogorets
1.00

allows per match

Anderlecht
0.90
Ludogorets
2.75

finishing

Anderlecht+0.00on par
Ludogorets+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

Ludogorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw
86%
Anderlecht or Ludogorets
81%
Draw or Ludogorets
33%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+
44%
Ludogorets wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals
90%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
66%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
39%
Ludogorets 1+ goals
61%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
25%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)
82%
Ludogorets (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.80 + Ludogorets defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.27

Ludogorets attack 1.00 + Anderlecht defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Anderlecht scores more
67%
level
19%
Ludogorets scores more
14%

Anderlecht at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Anderlecht 2–1 Ludogorets

Anderlecht beat Ludogorets 2-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on February 23, 2023.

The match was played at Lotto Park in Brussel.