Ludogorets U19 0–2 Dinamo Minsk U19: Result & Stats

Ludogorets U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Minsk U19

M. Budko 67' (pen)

T. Melnichenko 12'

10/8/2023

UEFA Youth League · 1st RoundSporten tsentar Ludogorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ludogorets U1923%

×Draw29%

Dinamo Minsk U1948%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ludogorets U19Expected goals in this matchDinamo Minsk U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.27

Ludogorets U19

0.77

Dinamo Minsk U19

1.27

Dinamo Minsk U19 creates 65% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

0.33

creates per match

1.20

1.33

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Ludogorets U19

0.33

Dinamo Minsk U19

1.20

allows per match

Ludogorets U19

1.33

Dinamo Minsk U19

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludogorets U19+0.00on par

Dinamo Minsk U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets U19 ↓

Dinamo Minsk U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–117%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ludogorets U19 or draw

52%

Ludogorets U19 or Dinamo Minsk U19

71%

Draw or Dinamo Minsk U19

77%

Winning margin

Ludogorets U19 wins by 2+

7%

Dinamo Minsk U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Ludogorets U19 1+ goals

54%

Ludogorets U19 2+ goals

18%

Ludogorets U19 3+ goals

4%

Dinamo Minsk U19 1+ goals

72%

Dinamo Minsk U19 2+ goals

36%

Dinamo Minsk U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Dinamo Minsk U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets U19 at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Dinamo Minsk U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets U19 attack 0.33 + Dinamo Minsk U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.77

Dinamo Minsk U19 attack 1.20 + Ludogorets U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ludogorets U19 scores more

23%

level

29%

Dinamo Minsk U19 scores more

48%

Dinamo Minsk U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dinamo Minsk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

31'

33'

37'

38'

46'

N. Georgiev← Rayan Ivanov

46'

P. Kirev← A. Marinov

46'

D. Hadzhiev← N. Todorov

50'

T. Melnichenko

63'

M. Aleksandrov← V. Chernyavskiy

67'

M. BudkoPenalty

69'

A. Sokolovskiy

70'

I. Shimakovich

74'

A. Popov← R. Pavlov

79'

K. Nikolov← K. Dimitrov

80'

I. Orlov← M. Budko

86'

I. Kazakov

86'

Y. Krauchanka

86'

P. Kirev

86'

Y. Yordanov

87'

A. Belous← I. Orlov

Ludogorets

Dinamo

1

4

5

19

14

8

18

▼

Chernyavs

6

⚽

▼

Budko

20

Krolik

7

Kravchenk

11

⚽

Melnichen

68

Habil

5

Shishkov

4

▼

13

2

16

28

▼

Ivanov

14

▼

Marinov

18

▼

Todorov

9

Yordanov

8

▼

Dimitrov

Manager: Z. Sirakov

46'▲N. Georgiev←▼Rayan Ivanov

46'▲P. Kirev←▼A. Marinov

46'▲D. Hadzhiev←▼N. Todorov

74'▲A. Popov←▼R. Pavlov

79'▲K. Nikolov←▼K. Dimitrov

Ludogorets U19 substitutes

7Georgiev10Kirev24Hadzhiev19Popov77Nikolov1Stoimenov11Ivanova

Manager: D. Lentsevich

63'▲M. Aleksandrov←▼V. Chernyavskiy

80'▲I. Orlov←▼M. Budko

87'▲A. Belous←▼I. Orlov

Dinamo Minsk U19 substitutes

16Aleksandrov10Orlov3Belous12Yaroshevich13Lukashenko15Lisovskiy22Bondarenko

UEFA Youth League: Ludogorets U19 0–2 Dinamo Minsk U19

Dinamo Minsk U19 beat Ludogorets U19 2-0 in UEFA Youth League on October 8, 2023.

Goals: T. Melnichenko (12'), M. Budko (67' pen).

The match was played at Sporten tsentar Ludogorets in Razgrad.

Ludogorets U19 vs Dinamo Minsk U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Ludogorets U19 0–2 Dinamo Minsk U19