Dinamo Minsk U19 0–1 Ludogorets U19: Result & Stats

Dinamo Minsk U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ludogorets U19

N. Todorov 90'

10/4/2023

UEFA Youth League · 1st RoundSporten tsentar Ludogorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dinamo Minsk U1917%

×Draw37%

Ludogorets U1946%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Minsk U19Expected goals in this matchLudogorets U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.46

0.94

Dinamo Minsk U19

0.46

Ludogorets U19

0.94

Ludogorets U19 creates 104% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

0.60

creates per match

0.67

1.20

allows per match

0.33

creates per match

Dinamo Minsk U19

0.60

Ludogorets U19

0.67

allows per match

Dinamo Minsk U19

1.20

Ludogorets U19

0.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Minsk U19+0.00on par

Ludogorets U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under83
Over17

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No78
Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Minsk U19 ↓

Ludogorets U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–025%

0–123%

0–211%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–03%

2–12%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (25%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

75%25%1.5

41%59%2.5

17%83%3.5

5%95%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Dinamo Minsk U19 or draw

54%

Dinamo Minsk U19 or Ludogorets U19

63%

Draw or Ludogorets U19

83%

Winning margin

Dinamo Minsk U19 wins by 2+

4%

Ludogorets U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Dinamo Minsk U19 1+ goals

37%

Dinamo Minsk U19 2+ goals

8%

Dinamo Minsk U19 3+ goals

1%

Ludogorets U19 1+ goals

61%

Ludogorets U19 2+ goals

24%

Ludogorets U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Minsk U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Ludogorets U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

12%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Minsk U19 at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Ludogorets U19 away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Minsk U19 attack 0.60 + Ludogorets U19 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.46

Ludogorets U19 attack 0.67 + Dinamo Minsk U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dinamo Minsk U19 scores more

17%

level

37%

Ludogorets U19 scores more

46%

Ludogorets U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ludogorets U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

T. Dubovik

46'

Y. Yordanov← P. Kirev

46'

N. Todorov← N. Georgiev

66'

A. Popov← A. Marinov

66'

Rayan Ivanov← H. Atanasov

71'

V. Lisovskiy← I. Orlov

84'

M. Stanchev← D. Ivanov

90+5'

K. Dimitrov

90'

N. Todorov

Dinamo

Ludogorets

1

5

4

13

3

▼

Atanasov

2

Nikolov

16

▼

Ivanov

14

▼

Marinov

7

▼

Georgiev

10

▼

8

1

4

5

19

14

8

18

6

20

10

▼

Orlov

11

Melnichen

Manager: D. Lentsevich

71'▲V. Lisovskiy←▼I. Orlov

Dinamo Minsk U19 substitutes

15Lisovskiy3Belous7Kravchenko12Yaroshevich13Lukashenko17Bekarevich22Bondarenko

Manager: Z. Sirakov

46'▲Y. Yordanov←▼P. Kirev

46'▲N. Todorov←▼N. Georgiev

66'▲A. Popov←▼A. Marinov

66'▲Rayan Ivanov←▼H. Atanasov

84'▲M. Stanchev←▼D. Ivanov

Ludogorets U19 substitutes

9Yordanov18Todorov19Popov28Ivanov22Stanchev24Hadzhiev68Habil

Match Recap: Dinamo Minsk U19 vs Ludogorets U19

Ludogorets U19 beat Dinamo Minsk U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on October 4, 2023.

Goals: N. Todorov (90').

The match was played at Sporten tsentar Ludogorets in Razgrad.

Dinamo Minsk U19 vs Ludogorets U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dinamo Minsk U19 vs Ludogorets U19