Ludogorets III 10–0 Inter Dobrich: Result & Stats

Ludogorets III

FT

10 – 0

Inter Dobrich

4/11/2021

Third League - Northeast · North-East - 22Sporten tsentar Ludogorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ludogorets III92%

×Draw6%

Inter Dobrich2%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ludogorets IIIExpected goals in this matchInter Dobrich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.15

0.62

Ludogorets III

4.15

Inter Dobrich

0.62

Ludogorets III creates 569% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 14 away

3.38

creates per match

0.57

0.67

allows per match

4.93

creates per match

Ludogorets III

3.38

Inter Dobrich

0.57

allows per match

Ludogorets III

0.67

Inter Dobrich

4.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludogorets III+0.00on par

Inter Dobrich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets III ↓

Inter Dobrich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–15%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–012%

4–17%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Ludogorets III or draw

98%

Ludogorets III or Inter Dobrich

94%

Draw or Inter Dobrich

8%

Winning margin

Ludogorets III wins by 2+

80%

Inter Dobrich wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Ludogorets III 1+ goals

98%

Ludogorets III 2+ goals

91%

Ludogorets III 3+ goals

75%

Inter Dobrich 1+ goals

46%

Inter Dobrich 2+ goals

13%

Inter Dobrich 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets III (draw refunded)

98%

Inter Dobrich (draw refunded)

2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets III at home — creates 3.38, concedes 0.67 · 84 matches

Inter Dobrich away — creates 0.57, concedes 4.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets III attack 3.38 + Inter Dobrich defence 4.93 → ÷2 → 4.15

Inter Dobrich attack 0.57 + Ludogorets III defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Ludogorets III scores more

92%

level

6%

Inter Dobrich scores more

2%

Ludogorets III at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Ludogorets III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff