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Inter Dobrich vs Ludogorets III — Third League - Northeast 2018

Inter Dobrich
Inter Dobrich
FT
0 – 3
Ludogorets III
Ludogorets III
9/27/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 7Izkustven teren Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Inter Dobrich7%
×Draw12%
Ludogorets III81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Dobrich
0.88
Ludogorets III
3.21

Ludogorets III creates 265% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 84 away

creates per match

Inter Dobrich
0.85
Ludogorets III
2.05

allows per match

Inter Dobrich
4.38
Ludogorets III
0.90

finishing

Inter Dobrich+0.00on par
Ludogorets III+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Dobrich ↓

Ludogorets III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–310%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Inter Dobrich or draw
19%
Inter Dobrich or Ludogorets III
88%
Draw or Ludogorets III
93%

Winning margin

Inter Dobrich wins by 2+
2%
Ludogorets III wins by 2+
63%

Team goals

Inter Dobrich 1+ goals
59%
Inter Dobrich 2+ goals
22%
Inter Dobrich 3+ goals
6%
Ludogorets III 1+ goals
96%
Ludogorets III 2+ goals
82%
Ludogorets III 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Inter Dobrich (draw refunded)
8%
Ludogorets III (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Dobrich at home — creates 0.85, concedes 4.38 · 13 matches

Ludogorets III away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.90 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Dobrich attack 0.85 + Ludogorets III defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.88

Ludogorets III attack 2.05 + Inter Dobrich defence 4.38 → ÷2 → 3.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Inter Dobrich scores more
7%
level
12%
Ludogorets III scores more
81%

Ludogorets III at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Ludogorets III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Inter Dobrich 0 – 3 Ludogorets III

Ludogorets III beat Inter Dobrich 3-0 in Third League - Northeast on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Izkustven teren Druzhba in Dobrich.