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Ludogorets III vs Fratria — Third League - Northeast 2018

Ludogorets III
Ludogorets III
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fratria
Fratria
5/26/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 29Sporten tsentar Ludogorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ludogorets III53%
×Draw21%
Fratria26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets III
2.15
Fratria
1.45

Ludogorets III creates 48% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ludogorets III
3.38
Fratria
2.23

allows per match

Ludogorets III
0.67
Fratria
0.92

finishing

Ludogorets III+0.00on par
Fratria+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets III ↓

Fratria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Ludogorets III or draw
74%
Ludogorets III or Fratria
79%
Draw or Fratria
47%

Winning margin

Ludogorets III wins by 2+
32%
Fratria wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ludogorets III 1+ goals
88%
Ludogorets III 2+ goals
63%
Ludogorets III 3+ goals
36%
Fratria 1+ goals
77%
Fratria 2+ goals
42%
Fratria 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets III (draw refunded)
67%
Fratria (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets III at home — creates 3.38, concedes 0.67 · 84 matches

Fratria away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets III attack 3.38 + Fratria defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 2.15

Fratria attack 2.23 + Ludogorets III defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ludogorets III scores more
53%
level
21%
Fratria scores more
26%

Ludogorets III at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ludogorets III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Ludogorets III 1–1 Fratria

Ludogorets III and Fratria drew 1-1 in Third League - Northeast on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Sporten tsentar Ludogorets in Razgrad.