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Fratria vs Ludogorets III — Third League - Northeast 2018

Fratria
Fratria
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ludogorets III
Ludogorets III
11/29/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 14Stadion Staro Oryahovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fratria54%
×Draw21%
Ludogorets III25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fratria
2.06
Ludogorets III
1.33

Fratria creates 55% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 84 away

creates per match

Fratria
3.23
Ludogorets III
2.05

allows per match

Fratria
0.62
Ludogorets III
0.90

finishing

Fratria+0.00on par
Ludogorets III+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fratria ↓

Ludogorets III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Fratria or draw
75%
Fratria or Ludogorets III
79%
Draw or Ludogorets III
46%

Winning margin

Fratria wins by 2+
32%
Ludogorets III wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fratria 1+ goals
87%
Fratria 2+ goals
61%
Fratria 3+ goals
34%
Ludogorets III 1+ goals
74%
Ludogorets III 2+ goals
38%
Ludogorets III 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fratria (draw refunded)
69%
Ludogorets III (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fratria at home — creates 3.23, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Ludogorets III away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.90 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fratria attack 3.23 + Ludogorets III defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 2.06

Ludogorets III attack 2.05 + Fratria defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fratria scores more
54%
level
21%
Ludogorets III scores more
25%

Fratria at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fratria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fratria vs Ludogorets III

Ludogorets III beat Fratria 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on November 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Staro Oryahovo in Staro Oryahovo.