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Ludogorets III vs Dunav ot Ruse II — Third League - Northeast 2018

Ludogorets III
Ludogorets III
FT
7 – 2
Dunav ot Ruse II
Dunav ot Ruse II
9/11/2022Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 5Sporten tsentar Ludogorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Ludogorets III84%
×Draw11%
Dunav ot Ruse II6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets III
3.12
Dunav ot Ruse II
0.71

Ludogorets III creates 339% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 27 away

creates per match

Ludogorets III
3.38
Dunav ot Ruse II
0.74

allows per match

Ludogorets III
0.67
Dunav ot Ruse II
2.85

finishing

Ludogorets III+0.00on par
Dunav ot Ruse II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets III ↓

Dunav ot Ruse II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Ludogorets III or draw
94%
Ludogorets III or Dunav ot Ruse II
89%
Draw or Dunav ot Ruse II
16%

Winning margin

Ludogorets III wins by 2+
65%
Dunav ot Ruse II wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Ludogorets III 1+ goals
95%
Ludogorets III 2+ goals
81%
Ludogorets III 3+ goals
59%
Dunav ot Ruse II 1+ goals
51%
Dunav ot Ruse II 2+ goals
16%
Dunav ot Ruse II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets III (draw refunded)
94%
Dunav ot Ruse II (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets III at home — creates 3.38, concedes 0.67 · 84 matches

Dunav ot Ruse II away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets III attack 3.38 + Dunav ot Ruse II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 3.12

Dunav ot Ruse II attack 0.74 + Ludogorets III defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Ludogorets III scores more
84%
level
11%
Dunav ot Ruse II scores more
6%

Ludogorets III at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Ludogorets III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Ludogorets III 7–2 Dunav ot Ruse II

Ludogorets III beat Dunav ot Ruse II 7-2 in Third League - Northeast on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Sporten tsentar Ludogorets in Razgrad.