Dunav ot Ruse II 0–3 Ludogorets III: Result & Stats

Dunav ot Ruse II

FT

0 – 3

Ludogorets III

3/15/2024

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 19Stadion Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Dunav ot Ruse II20%

×Draw22%

Ludogorets III58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunav ot Ruse IIExpected goals in this matchLudogorets III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.95

Dunav ot Ruse II

1.04

Ludogorets III

1.95

Ludogorets III creates 88% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 84 away

1.19

creates per match

2.05

1.85

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Dunav ot Ruse II

1.19

Ludogorets III

2.05

allows per match

Dunav ot Ruse II

1.85

Ludogorets III

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunav ot Ruse II+0.00on par

Ludogorets III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav ot Ruse II ↓

Ludogorets III →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dunav ot Ruse II or draw

42%

Dunav ot Ruse II or Ludogorets III

78%

Draw or Ludogorets III

80%

Winning margin

Dunav ot Ruse II wins by 2+

7%

Ludogorets III wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Dunav ot Ruse II 1+ goals

65%

Dunav ot Ruse II 2+ goals

28%

Dunav ot Ruse II 3+ goals

9%

Ludogorets III 1+ goals

86%

Ludogorets III 2+ goals

58%

Ludogorets III 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Dunav ot Ruse II (draw refunded)

25%

Ludogorets III (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav ot Ruse II at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.85 · 27 matches

Ludogorets III away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.90 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav ot Ruse II attack 1.19 + Ludogorets III defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.04

Ludogorets III attack 2.05 + Dunav ot Ruse II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dunav ot Ruse II scores more

20%

level

22%

Ludogorets III scores more

58%

Ludogorets III at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ludogorets III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff