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Ludogorets III vs Dorostol — Third League - Northeast 2018

Ludogorets III
Ludogorets III
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dorostol
Dorostol
9/8/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 4Sporten tsentar Ludogorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Ludogorets III76%
×Draw14%
Dorostol10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets III
2.79
Dorostol
0.91

Ludogorets III creates 207% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 84 away

creates per match

Ludogorets III
3.38
Dorostol
1.14

allows per match

Ludogorets III
0.67
Dorostol
2.19

finishing

Ludogorets III+0.00on par
Dorostol+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets III ↓

Dorostol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Ludogorets III or draw
90%
Ludogorets III or Dorostol
86%
Draw or Dorostol
24%

Winning margin

Ludogorets III wins by 2+
55%
Dorostol wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ludogorets III 1+ goals
94%
Ludogorets III 2+ goals
76%
Ludogorets III 3+ goals
52%
Dorostol 1+ goals
60%
Dorostol 2+ goals
23%
Dorostol 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets III (draw refunded)
89%
Dorostol (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets III at home — creates 3.38, concedes 0.67 · 84 matches

Dorostol away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.19 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets III attack 3.38 + Dorostol defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.79

Dorostol attack 1.14 + Ludogorets III defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Ludogorets III scores more
76%
level
14%
Dorostol scores more
10%

Ludogorets III at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Ludogorets III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Ludogorets III 1–0 Dorostol

Ludogorets III beat Dorostol 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Sporten tsentar Ludogorets in Razgrad.