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Dorostol vs Ludogorets III — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dorostol
Dorostol
FT
0 – 2
Ludogorets III
Ludogorets III
3/15/2025Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 19Stadion Louis Eyer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Dorostol21%
×Draw23%
Ludogorets III56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dorostol
0.98
Ludogorets III
1.77

Ludogorets III creates 81% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 84 away

creates per match

Dorostol
1.06
Ludogorets III
2.05

allows per match

Dorostol
1.49
Ludogorets III
0.90

finishing

Dorostol+0.00on par
Ludogorets III+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorostol ↓

Ludogorets III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dorostol or draw
44%
Dorostol or Ludogorets III
77%
Draw or Ludogorets III
79%

Winning margin

Dorostol wins by 2+
7%
Ludogorets III wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Dorostol 1+ goals
62%
Dorostol 2+ goals
26%
Dorostol 3+ goals
8%
Ludogorets III 1+ goals
83%
Ludogorets III 2+ goals
53%
Ludogorets III 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Dorostol (draw refunded)
27%
Ludogorets III (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorostol at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 84 matches

Ludogorets III away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.90 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorostol attack 1.06 + Ludogorets III defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.98

Ludogorets III attack 2.05 + Dorostol defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dorostol scores more
21%
level
23%
Ludogorets III scores more
56%

Ludogorets III at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ludogorets III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Dorostol 0–2 Ludogorets III

Ludogorets III beat Dorostol 2-0 in Third League - Northeast on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Louis Eyer in Silistra.