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Ludogorets II vs Levski Lom — Second League 2018

Ludogorets II
Ludogorets II
CANC
15:00
Levski Lom
Levski Lom
4/30/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 34Sporten tsentar Ludogorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ludogorets II68%
×Draw20%
Levski Lom12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets II
2.00
Levski Lom
0.68

Ludogorets II creates 194% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ludogorets II
1.84
Levski Lom
0.31

allows per match

Ludogorets II
1.05
Levski Lom
2.15

finishing

Ludogorets II+0.00on par
Levski Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets II ↓

Levski Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ludogorets II or draw
88%
Ludogorets II or Levski Lom
80%
Draw or Levski Lom
32%

Winning margin

Ludogorets II wins by 2+
43%
Levski Lom wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ludogorets II 1+ goals
86%
Ludogorets II 2+ goals
59%
Ludogorets II 3+ goals
32%
Levski Lom 1+ goals
49%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
15%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets II (draw refunded)
85%
Levski Lom (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.05 · 128 matches

Levski Lom away — creates 0.31, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets II attack 1.84 + Levski Lom defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.00

Levski Lom attack 0.31 + Ludogorets II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ludogorets II scores more
68%
level
20%
Levski Lom scores more
12%

Ludogorets II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ludogorets II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ludogorets II vs Levski Lom — Match Preview

Ludogorets II face Levski Lom on April 30, 2022 in this Second League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ludogorets II host Levski Lom at Sporten tsentar Ludogorets.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.