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Levski Lom vs Ludogorets II — Second League 2018

Levski Lom
Levski Lom
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ludogorets II
Ludogorets II
11/1/2021Second LeagueSecond League · Round 15Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Levski Lom35%
×Draw30%
Ludogorets II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Lom
1.08
Ludogorets II
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 130 away

creates per match

Levski Lom
0.77
Ludogorets II
0.92

allows per match

Levski Lom
1.23
Ludogorets II
1.40

finishing

Levski Lom+0.00on par
Ludogorets II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Lom ↓

Ludogorets II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Levski Lom or draw
65%
Levski Lom or Ludogorets II
70%
Draw or Ludogorets II
65%

Winning margin

Levski Lom wins by 2+
14%
Ludogorets II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Levski Lom 1+ goals
66%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
29%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
10%
Ludogorets II 1+ goals
66%
Ludogorets II 2+ goals
29%
Ludogorets II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Levski Lom (draw refunded)
50%
Ludogorets II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Lom at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Ludogorets II away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.40 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Lom attack 0.77 + Ludogorets II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.08

Ludogorets II attack 0.92 + Levski Lom defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Levski Lom scores more
35%
level
30%
Ludogorets II scores more
35%

Levski Lom at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Levski Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Levski Lom 1–2 Ludogorets II

Ludogorets II beat Levski Lom 2-1 in Second League on November 1, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Lom in Lom.