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Ludogorets II vs FK Minyor Pernik — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ludogorets II
Ludogorets II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FK Minyor Pernik
FK Minyor Pernik
1/28/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ludogorets II72%
×Draw18%
FK Minyor Pernik10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets II
2.23
FK Minyor Pernik
0.71

Ludogorets II creates 214% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ludogorets II
2.80
FK Minyor Pernik
0.83

allows per match

Ludogorets II
0.60
FK Minyor Pernik
1.67

finishing

Ludogorets II+0.00on par
FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets II ↓

FK Minyor Pernik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ludogorets II or draw
90%
Ludogorets II or FK Minyor Pernik
82%
Draw or FK Minyor Pernik
28%

Winning margin

Ludogorets II wins by 2+
48%
FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ludogorets II 1+ goals
89%
Ludogorets II 2+ goals
65%
Ludogorets II 3+ goals
38%
FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals
51%
FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals
16%
FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets II (draw refunded)
87%
FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets II at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

FK Minyor Pernik away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets II attack 2.80 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.23

FK Minyor Pernik attack 0.83 + Ludogorets II defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Ludogorets II scores more
72%
level
18%
FK Minyor Pernik scores more
10%

Ludogorets II at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Ludogorets II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Ludogorets
FK
Zahari Sirakov
Manager: Zahari Sirakov
Angel Chervenkov
Manager: Angel Chervenkov

Match Recap: Ludogorets II vs FK Minyor Pernik

Ludogorets II beat FK Minyor Pernik 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 28, 2026.